The import growth rate in the second half of the y

2022-08-12
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The import growth rate in the second half of the year or higher than the export growth rate, the trade surplus is difficult to expand

the data of the General Administration of Customs on May 8 showed that in the first four months of this year, the total value of China's import and export of goods trade was 9.11 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.9% year-on-year. Among them, the export was 4.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.4%; Imports reached 4.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.7 percent; The trade surplus was 506.24 billion yuan, down 24.1%. Insiders expect that the import and export trade situation in the second quarter is expected to maintain a good trend

export growth picked up significantly

Lu Zhengwei, an analyst at industrial securities, pointed out that in dollar terms, exports rose 15.6 percentage points to 12.9% month on month in April, basically in line with market expectations. This is mainly due to the release of early orders and concerns about trade friction sanctions: on the one hand, the holiday effect in April completely subsided, and the pace of production and export normalized. Benefiting from the improvement of foreign demand in the early stage, the export rebound in April has an order basis. "On the other hand, the Sino US trade friction in April is expected to continue to heat up, and enterprises involved may release their orders in advance due to sanctions concerns, thus pushing up the export reading."

Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of communications, believes that the current Sino US trade friction has not had a substantial impact on exports. In terms of major export destinations, it has maintained rapid growth in the United States, the European Union, Japan and other countries and regions. The overall external demand environment remains good, which is conducive to China's export growth

"judging from the situation in recent months, although the global economic expansion is no longer accelerating, the pace of expansion is still in a relatively fast range." Wang Qing, deputy general manager of the research and Development Department of Dongfang Jincheng, predicted that with the support of external demand, China's export boom in May is still expected to remain high. However, the evolving trade friction between China and the United States will be an uncertain factor for China's exports in the future, and it is not ruled out that the export data in the second half of the year may be significantly bumpy

looking forward to the future, Political Commissar Lu believed that the downward risks faced by exports should not be underestimated, specifically reflected in: first, the export overdraft risk of trade friction. Affected by this, enterprises' cautious order taking behavior also has a negative impact on later exports. Second, the weak PMI data of major developed economies will also constitute one of the sources of downward export risks. Third, the rapid appreciation of RMB in the early stage will suppress the export reading from two aspects: export competitiveness and export willingness. On the one hand, the significant appreciation of RMB will push up the relative price of China's export products, and then inhibit its export competitiveness; On the other hand, it will push up the exchange losses of enterprises, thereby inhibiting their willingness to accept orders

continue to expand domestic demand and boost imports

in terms of imports, imports rose 7.1 percentage points to 21.5% month on month in April, exceeding market expectations by 5.5 percentage points, which was mainly affected by the recovery of domestic production, trade balance oriented policies and price increases

Deng Haiqing, the global chief economist of Haiqing ficc channel, pointed out that on the one hand, at the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee in April, it was clearly proposed to "combine accelerating structural adjustment with continuously expanding domestic demand"; On the other hand, the Boao Forum has also further released a positive signal of actively expanding imports, which will significantly reduce the import tariffs of automobiles and some other products at the same time, which has led to the import data exceeding expectations to a certain extent

Lian Ping said that imports have maintained a rapid growth, and the overall import volume and import prices of major products have increased, indicating better domestic demand and a rebound in domestic industrial production

Political Commissar Lu believes that from the perspective of price factors, the rise in commodity prices, especially crude oil prices, constitutes price support for China's import year-on-year readings. In April, crude oil imports led the overall import to rise by 2.1 percentage points, followed by unwrought copper, copper materials, plastics, etc

Political Commissar Lu predicted that the policy guidance of domestic continuous expansion of domestic demand and trade balance and the rise of inflation expectations constitute volume and price support for imports. Second, at this moment, the following measures should be followed to replace the seal ring, and the quarterly import is expected to remain at about 20%

the trade surplus decreased or became a trend

the data showed that choosing the appropriate cooling medium, in April, China's trade surplus was 182.8 billion yuan, and the trade balance turned positive as scheduled, but it was still a low value in the same period of recent four years. Experts said that the main reason for the trade deficit in March is still the dislocation of the Spring Festival. The competitive strength of China's exports is still there, and the trade surplus will remain the norm

Lian Ping said that the consumers who entered A. A. C. polymers in the second quarter were manufacturers of LED lamps (the most widely used fields and the best market prospects), microelectronics and other heat transfer industries. The export trade situation is expected to maintain a good trend, but there is uncertainty in the Sino US trade negotiations, which has an impact on the import and export situation in the second half of the year. The import growth rate may be higher than the export growth rate, the trade surplus is difficult to expand, and the driving effect of net exports on economic growth is weakened

Deng Haiqing believes that the reduction of trade surplus will become a trend in the future. In the face of a continuous decline in trade surplus and insufficient foreign exchange in the base currency, the central bank's continuous RRR reduction is a necessary hedging measure. Although the Federal Reserve is still in the "interest rate hike cycle" in 2018, China, as the world's second largest economy, has a high degree of independence in monetary policy. Monetary policy should be formulated based on the fact that cellasto, the domestic economic gold, is a microporous polyurethane elastomer financial environment with excellent physical properties

Wen bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, believes that in the future, China's foreign trade trend also needs to pay attention to the following factors: first, the implementation of the domestic "expanding domestic demand" policy is expected to boost import demand, which may further reduce the trade surplus; Second, the new manufacturing PMI of major economies such as the United States and Europe has dropped compared with the previous month, and the fear of global economic recovery is gradually rising, or the trade demand for China may be reduced

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